- Дмитрий Безугловhas quotedlast year
This is revolutionary stuff. Yet four years after the original Nature paper was published, Nature News had sad tidings to convey: the latest flu outbreak had claimed an unexpected victim—Google Flu Trends. After reliably providing a swift and accurate account of flu outbreaks for several winters, the theory-free, data-rich model lost its nose for where flu was going. - Shubhankar Zingrehas quoted9 months ago
The nice margin that Starbucks makes on their cappuccinos is due neither to the quality of the coffee nor to the staff: it’s location, location, location. - Shubhankar Zingrehas quoted8 months agoThe answer is that improved public transportation increases the alternatives to renting a place in the city. When a two-hour commute becomes a one-hour commute, and people are able to get a seat on the train instead of standing, some decide they’d rather save money and move out of Manhattan. Vacant apartments then appear on the market. Scarcity lessens, and rents fall. Improving commuter services wouldn’t just affect commuters; it would affect everyone involved in New York’s property market.
- Shubhankar Zingrehas quoted8 months agoThe answer is that improved public transportation increases the alternatives to renting a place in the city. When a two-hour commute becomes a one-hour commute, and people are able to get a seat on the train instead of standing, some decide they’d rather save money and move out of Manhattan. Vacant apartments then appear on the market. Scarcity lessens, and rents fall. Improving commuter services wouldn’t just affect commuters; it would affect everyone involved in New York’s property market.
- Дмитрий Безугловhas quotedlast yearover the years, I’ve become more and more uneasy about How to Lie with Statistics and what that little book represents. What does it say about statistics—and about us—that the most successful book on the subject is, from cover to cover, a warning about misinformation?
Интересное замечание – сразу поставить себя в оппозицию к классическому тексту и поставить классный вопрос: «как и почему самая популярная книга о статистике – это книга о дезинформации?»
- Дмитрий Безугловhas quotedlast yearAdolf Hitler despised smoking. The Führer was no doubt pleased when German doctors discovered that cigarettes caused cancer. For obvious reasons, though, “hated by Nazis” was no impediment to the popularity of tobacco.
- Дмитрий Безугловhas quotedlast yearAnd when a doctor dies, you can expect a good diagnosis as to the cause of death. All Hill and Doll had to do was wait.
More than 40,000 doctors responded to Hill’s request, but not all of them were delighted. You have to understand that smoking was extremely common at the time, and it was no surprise to find that 85 percent of the male doctors in Doll and Hill’s initial sample were smokers. Nobody likes to be told that they might be slowly killing themselves, especially if the suicide method is highly addictive.Очень хороший поворот ума – к тому, как собирать достоверные данные.
- Дмитрий Безугловhas quotedlast yearDoctors became the first identifiable social group in the UK to give up smoking in large numbers.
- Дмитрий Безугловhas quotedlast yearIn 1954, then, two visions of statistics had emerged at the same time. To the many readers of Darrell Huff’s How to Lie with Statistics, statistics were a game, full of swindlers and cheats—and it could be amusing to catch the scoundrels at their tricks. But for Austin Bradford Hill and Richard Doll, statistics were no laughing matter. Their game had the highest imaginable stakes, and if it was played honestly and well, it would save lives.
Красивый финал предисловия, в котором он сводит оба «видения» статистики и указывает неявно на political play with stats / actual med stats
- Дмитрий Безугловhas quotedlast yearThey manufactured doubt. A secret industry memo later reminded insiders that “doubt is our product.”
Отлично сочетается с а) инструментами пропаганды, существующими сейчас; б) сюжетом у Ле Карре про запугивание медиков, которые сомневаются в успешности проведенных клинических тестов
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