Rolf Dobelli

The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions

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Dra Gavrilovahas quotedlast year
econd, a broader selection leads to poorer decisions. If you ask young people what is important in a life partner, they reel off all the usual qualities: intelligence, good manners, warmth, the ability to listen, a sense of humor, and physical attractiveness. But do they actually take these criteria into account when choosing someone? In the past, a young man from a village of average size could choose among maybe twenty girls of similar age with whom he went to school. He knew their families and vice versa, leading to a decision based on several well-known attributes. Nowadays, in the era of online dating, millions of potential partners are at our disposal. It has been proven that the
Gbenga 'Gbliss'has quoted4 years ago
if you want to convince someone about something, don’t focus on the advantages; instead highlight how it helps them dodge the disadvantages
Слободан Ђурићhas quoted3 years ago
The media is not interested in digging around in the graveyards of the unsuccessful. Nor is this its job. To elude the survivorship bias, you must do the digging yourself.
screenleehas quoted6 years ago
Second, a broader selection leads to poorer decisions.
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted2 days ago
The omission bias, on the other hand, usually abounds where the situation is intelligible: A future misfortune might be averted with direct action, but this insight doesn’t motivate us as much as it should.
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted2 days ago
options. “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone,” wrote Blaise Pascal. At home, in his study.
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted2 days ago
, though it might not merit a parade in your honor, if a situation is unclear, hold back until you can assess your op‍
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted2 days ago
This is the action bias: Look active, even if it achieves nothing
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted2 days ago
Realize that whatever you communicate contains some element of framing, and that every fact—even if you hear it from a trusted friend or read it in a reputable newspaper—is subject to this effect, too. Even this chapter.
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted2 days ago
Forget about left brains and right brains: The difference between intuitive and conscious thinking is much more significant. With important decisions, remember that, at the intuitive level, we have a soft spot for plausible stories. Therefore, be on the lookout for convenient details and happy endings. Remember: If an additional condition has to be met, no matter how plausible it sounds, it will become less, not more, likely.
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted2 days ago
The conjunction fallacy is at play when such a subset seems larger than the entire set—which by definition cannot be the case.
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted2 days ago
be critical when you encounter predictions. Whenever I hear one, I make sure to smile, no matter how bleak it is. Then I ask myself two questions. First, what incentive does the expert have? If he is an employee, could he lose his job if he is always wrong? Or is he a self-appointed guru who earns a living through books and lectures?
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted3 days ago
Risk is not directly visible. Therefore, always consider what the alternatives paths are. Success that comes about through risky dealings is, to a rational mind, of less worth than success achieved the “boring” way
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted3 days ago
Alternative paths are all the outcomes that could have happened but did not
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted3 days ago
The halo effect obstructs our view of true characteristics. To counteract this, go beyond face value. Factor out the most striking features
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted3 days ago
The halo effect occurs when a single aspect dazzles us and affects how we see the full picture
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted3 days ago
Correlation is not causality.
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted3 days ago
influences to which the actors are subjected.
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted3 days ago
you want to understand the current play—really understand it—then forget about the performers. Pay close attention to the dance of
Ramon Verduzco-olivahas quoted3 days ago
fundamental attribution error. This describes the tendency to overestimate individuals’ influence and underestimate external, situational factors.
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