The novel’s timeline shadows the July Crisis of 1914, when a localized assassination ignited global war. Archduke Franz Ferdinand was killed in Sarajevo on 28 June 1914 by Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb linked to the Black Hand. Austria-Hungary’s ultimatum to Serbia on 23 July led to declarations of war—Austria on Serbia (28 July), Germany on Russia (1 August) and France (3 August), and Britain on Germany (4 August) following the invasion of Belgium. Buchan’s invented assassination of the Greek premier "Karolides" prefigures this domino logic: a Balkan shock used by great powers to rearrange Europe.