Bits + Bips: Why Rate Cuts Are Less Likely This Year, but Crypto's Outlook Is Positive - Ep. 839

U.S. credit got downgraded. Fed policy expectations are flipping. And Coinbase hit the S&P 500 (while also being extorted).

But what does all of this mean for crypto?

On this week’s Bits + Bips, James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, Ram Ahluwalia, and Noelle Acheson break down:

Why the Moody’s downgrade doesn’t mean much for markets

Whether Fed rate cuts are now further off than expected

Why Alex says Coinbase is a “horrible product” despite S&P inclusion

How stablecoins tie into U.S. geopolitical strategy

Whether Circle should sell to Coinbase

And what the altcoin ETF delay really tells us

Plus: unemployment, yield curve control, the “Consensus vibes,” and Ram’s wild anecdote about workers gaming unemployment benefits.

Bitwise

James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence

Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard

Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida

Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter

Macro

Reuters: Moody's downgrade intensifies investor worry about US fiscal path

USNews: Trump Tells Walmart to 'Eat the Tariffs' Instead of Raising Prices

Coinbase

Unchained: How the Attack on Coinbase Shows the Dangers of Centralized Exchanges

Fortune: Circle pursues IPO—but talks with Coinbase and Ripple could mean a sale, sources say

CNBC: Coinbase joining S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial

Stablecoin bill

Unchained: Stablecoin Bill Passes Key Hurdle: Dems Join GOP to Deliver a Crypto Win

Timestamps:

👋 0:00 Intro

💳 2:18 A big reason why the U.S. credit downgrade matters for investors

📉 7:49 Contrarian take: why souring U.S. debt could also hurt crypto

🛡️ 15:30 Do tariffs work against the U.S. military and national security?

🔁 20:14 Why the crew flipped on Fed rate cut expectations

📊 28:35 Is the U.S. about to introduce yield curve control?

🧾 35:04 Are the Mag7 stocks the new safe havens in a recession?

📈 38:54 What if the “Goldilocks” scenario is priced in, and it's wrong?

💼 44:26 Why hedge funds are secretly in a vulnerable position

🫱 49:15 What the “vibes” at Consensus 2025 revealed

💵🇨🇳 50:44 A secret threat that the stablecoin bill poses to China?

📈 57:43 What Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion means and why Robinhood is its biggest threat

🌀 1:07:17 Should Coinbase acquire Circle? Here’s what the panel thinks

⏳ 1:13:38 Why altcoin ETF approvals are delayed and wen staking in ETFs?
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